Are the Rumors True?
If you haven’t heard, there’s been a lot of talk lately about an upcoming recession.
My research indicates that, yes, there will be some sort of recession at some point in 2020, maybe 2021.
However, the impact of that recession will be minimal … in fact, it may be over before we realize we’re in a recession.
Plus, we won’t have a housing market collapse on top of a recession, as too many of us remember from over a decade ago.
The housing market is very stable. In fact, homeowners now have more equity than in years past.
Couple that with stricter lending requirements and we see a very stable real estate market, which will help us ease through this looming recession.
Statistically speaking, every 10 years or so, we enter into some sort of “recession.” Let’s take a look at what the recessions of the past have done to home prices.
Median Sold Price trajectory is upward
Las month we saw a pretty drastic increase in Median Sold Price, so as expected, this month’s tiered back just a bit. September’s Median Sold Price was $305,000, then shot up to $310,000 in October and now in November, falls right in the middle at $307,000.
Let’s briefly remember back to June 2006, when we topped out at $315,000 Median Sold Price, and then to Jan 2012 when we bottomed at $118,000. EEK!!
I’m going to run a scenario by you for comparison’s sake. Let’s say we never had that big spike, and then that big tank. Let’s assume that we go to 2004, when as a whole for the year, Median Sold Price was $204,000. If we project at a 3% housing appreciation per year, in 2019 we should be at a Median Sold Price of $327,360.
Being that we have not yet surpassed our highest of highs from a bubble, and from a conservative 3% trajectory, our housing market still has a lot of room to grow. . . comfortably.
|Year||Starting Value||3% Appreciation|
This is why it is a great time to buy, because as a whole, prices are anticipated to continue to rise. And a great time to sell, because historically, homeowners have more equity in their homes than ever before.
Selling During the Holidays
I’m actually NOT joking here… let’s take a look. The graph below shows a pretty consistent pattern between Homes Sold (BLUE) and New Listings (GREEN).
You’ll notice as we transition into the latter part of the year, the number of new listings is on the decline, while the number of homes sold is stable, sometimes with an incline.
The month when Homes Sold has the best opportunity to surpass the number of New Listings (thus giving you a better probability of receiving an offer on your home) is December.
In December 2016, the number of Homes Sold actually surpassed New Listings by 2,000 units!
In December 2017, the number of Homes Sold surpassed New Listings by 1,000 units. And in December 2018, those two stats were near even, the only time during the year where those stats were even close to one another.
Another stat I’d like to bring to your attention is the Number of New Listings and Homes Sold in January of each year.
New Listings skyrocket up after the New Year, and demand levels simply cannot keep pace, forcing homes to sit on the market for longer than expected.
Local Las Vegas Economy
Current population is approximately 2.285 million, up 1.6% since last year. New electric meter hookups are on the rise as well, up 1.8% from last year at 567,051. Average weekly wages have increased 2.5% while the average hours have decreased 2.0%. Our city residents seem to have a bit more money AND a bit more time. Not a bad living environment.
Real Estate Market Highlights
|Single-Family Home Stats||2019 vs. 2018||Analysis|
|Median Sales Price||$307,000
Up 4.1% YoY
|With last month’s drastic increase, we anticipated a bit of a leveling this month.|
|Number of Single-Family Homes Sold||2,899
Up 7.9% YoY
|We saw a 5.4% increase in homes sold as buyers rush to settle in before the holidays.|
|Months on Hand / Months of Inventory||2.5 Months
Down 3.5% YoY
|Down 6.7% from last month. Still lingering under 3 months of inventory on hand, our market is showing continued signs of stability.|
|Number of New Listings||3,544
Down 7.9% YoY
|The Number of New Listings is currently entering its yearly dip, down about 14% since September and about event to last month. As 2019 comes to a close, the number of new listings is expected to continue to decline, creating higher demand and a higher probability for listed homes to sell. And then, in January 2020, we’ll see a sharp rise in New Listings, increasing supply and decreasing demand levels.|